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    MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ (MAR)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$238.77Last close (Jul 30, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$230.00Open (Jul 31, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-8.77(-3.67%)
    • Marriott expects to achieve 5% to 5.5% net rooms growth, supported by strong conversions and adaptive reuse projects, with 30% of room openings coming from conversions.
    • Resilient demand in the high-end luxury segment, with luxury occupancy improving by nearly 2.5 percentage points year-over-year, and luxury resorts RevPAR up 4.1%.
    • The successful partnership with MGM is enhancing business with increased transient and group leads and positive customer engagement.
    • Expected continued weakness in Greater China is impacting Marriott's RevPAR growth, leading to an updated expectation of negative RevPAR growth for the rest of the year in that region due to macroeconomic pressures and softer domestic demand.
    • There is a slight erosion in group bookings for 2025, with group pace now pacing at 9%, which is a little lower from last quarter, potentially signaling reduced future revenue from this key segment.
    • Ancillary spend is softer than anticipated globally, suggesting that consumers are becoming more cautious with discretionary spending, which could affect Marriott's overall profitability as ancillary revenues are an important component.
    1. RevPAR Guidance Reduction
      Q: Why did you lower RevPAR guidance for the second half?
      A: Marriott reduced its RevPAR guidance mainly due to a weaker outlook in Greater China, which has a disproportionate impact on fees, especially Incentive Management Fees (IMFs). Slightly lower expectations in the U.S. and Canada also contribute to the reduction.

    2. China's Impact on Development
      Q: Is China's softness affecting development and signings?
      A: Despite market softness, Marriott continues to see record signings in China with no slowdown in development. Owners believe in the long-term prospects and are actively signing deals, especially in select service hotels expected to open within 12 months.

    3. Fee Guidance Breakdown
      Q: Can you break down the lower fee guidance?
      A: The gross fee guidance was lowered by about $75 million, with two-thirds of the reduction due to lower IMFs. Over half of the IMF decline is from Greater China, with additional impacts from the U.S. and foreign exchange effects.

    4. Group Booking Pace for 2025
      Q: How is group booking pace for 2025?
      A: Group bookings for 2025 are pacing at 9%, showing slight erosion from last quarter but remaining strong. Some booking hesitation exists due to the election, but overall group demand continues to be solid.

    5. Net Unit Growth Confidence
      Q: Are you confident in achieving 5%-5.5% net unit growth?
      A: Marriott maintains confidence in the 5%-5.5% net rooms growth guidance, driven by strong demand for conversions, adaptive reuse projects, and increased construction starts.

    6. Global Construction Starts
      Q: How are construction starts outside the U.S.?
      A: Global construction starts are up 40%, mirroring the U.S. increase. Strong activity is seen in China, while regions like EMEA and APAC face financing challenges. Overall, global construction trends are encouraging.

    7. High-End Consumer Demand
      Q: Is weakness at the lower end affecting higher-income customers?
      A: Marriott is not seeing sluggishness from the lower end affecting higher-income customers. Luxury occupancy improved by almost 2.5 points year-over-year, indicating resilience in high-end demand.

    8. International Travel Balance
      Q: How is the balance of inbound and outbound international travel?
      A: Inbound international travel to the U.S. remains at about 4%-5% of nights, consistent with pre-COVID levels. Outbound U.S. travelers and global cross-border travel are increasing, benefitting from a strong U.S. dollar.

    9. Ancillary Spend Softness
      Q: Are you seeing lower non-RevPAR fees due to ancillary spend?
      A: There's modest softening in ancillary spend across leisure and group segments. While credit card fees are still expected to rise by 10% in 2024, average cardholder spend has slightly moderated.

    10. MGM Deal Performance
      Q: How is the MGM deal progressing?
      A: The MGM deal is progressing well, with strong volumes of transient and group leads. Many customers are linking their MGM Rewards and Marriott Bonvoy accounts, and both companies are pleased with the early results.

    Research analysts covering MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/.